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How to know which economic and other statistics are how wrong?
(Basic info is free.) -
SUPER INFO
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Only specialists need to order this information offer.
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This description supplies enough basic information
... in order to
understand the problem. So interested citizen do not need to order
some more detailed analysis.
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For professional needs it is recommended to order..
... some more detailed analysis.
It is useful for bank management, political organisations, research bodies.
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Experts in statistics may order more information if...
... if they want to confirm own opinions.
Every good specialist in statistics will already know most or all
aspects detailed here below (and much more related to this subject).
For agreements an detailed studies
(minimum: 400 US$ / Euro) on such subjects
please send a contact message with your office phone number (not mobile phones) to:
ok @ aha7.com
(This service is only available if the expert author for this subject
has time left for such an analysis on demand.)
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Which statistics in economics are typically in one way or other wrong?
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Practically all are wrong. - Examples:
- The growth rate of economy. [Wrong by its nature.
Frequently falsification.]
- The inflation rate. [Wrong by its nature. Sometimes falsification.]
- Stock exchange indexes. [Wrong by their nature.
Manipulated, too. In addition, the German DAX is not a share
value index but an index of accumulated capital, hence far nicer then the reality]
- The unemployment rate. [Totally wrong by its nature.
In addition frequently totally falsified.]
- The currency exchange rate. [Totally wrong by its nature
simply worthless, excepted for commerce and speculation.]
- International wealth comparisons based on currency exchange rates,
this is the dominant unscientific habit.
... Such comparisons are the champions of logically wrong or even falisified statistics.
Error rates are up to 500 %. Poor countries are up to 5 times richer
than told by usual press-published income comparisons.
- Yes, it is wonderful to feel to be member of a wealthy country
when reading from poverty levels somewhere else. But the problem
is, in most cases poor countries are several times wealthier
than listed in comparisons.
- Never trust again your journalists... In this field practically all
press information is wrong, totally wrong, because mostly based on
documents received from people who intentionally or unintentionally
falsified the truth.
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Error reason no. 1: Human intention.
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The falsification rate for national statistics
increases in a more or less proportinal manner with the reducing
delay until next critical elections.
''Socialist'' economies [or semi-socialist redistribution
economies, like France and Germany]
have a far higher degree of manipulation. Past communist Russia
and East Germany ['DDR'] were the historical champions with falsification
rates of up to 100 % or even several 100 %, depending from the statistics concerned.
China was in the past in falsification competition with them.
Now China is still more versatile in the 'false statistics' competition
than France or Italy.
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Error reason no. 2: Long term trends.
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- Example: Increasing woman labor and decreasing birth rates
mean that growth statistics for
the time since 1960 have a falsification factor of up to 100 %.
- Example: Increasing 'out-sourcing of househould activities'
falsifies statistics. [The restaurant, travelling, etc..]
- Example: An increasing state sector in society means that
growth statistics can be wrong up to 50 %.
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Error reason no. 3: Basic logical problems - logical impossibilities
of true statistics.
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- Example: Statistics rely in their basic concept on the human
value system. This varies based on available products,
society concepts.
There is no way out of it.
- The impossibility of 'true' statistics is as absolute as
the fact that circles cannot be rectangular.
- Example: The truth of statistics in economics is so relative
because it is impossible to deal properly with wealth distribution.
Such an evaluation would rely on the prevailing society value system for
the quantification of economic justice / injustice.
But this quantification is impossible in an absolute logical sense.
- Example: Increasing globalisation means that
growth statistics can vary up to perhaps 30 % or more
in a manner impossible to quantify.
- Example: The currency value is not identical for distant
areas. For example, the new Euro has less [less!] value in Germany than in
France. It has in France less [less!] value than in Spain.
If such errors are on a non-neglectable level, all related statistics
may be falsified. This subsequent falsification effect may be
lower or higher than the initial falsification, depending from the subject.
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All errors together: What does it mean when reading statistics?
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The first conclusion is that nothing is true.
The most-cited measure for anything in economy, business, politics
and media discussion simply does not exist.
The problem is: The only ones who are conscious
that statistics are wrong, are those who are producing them.
Specialists in the fields of statistics are regularly the
only ones who know more or less precisely the lack of precision and of meaning,
and how to guess the relative truth behind statistics.
The conclusion is: Official statistics
can serve as guidelines, if interpreted like by scientists in
the field of statistics.
This is the reason why you should obtain below acces to additional information.
The additional information supplies some very approximated error estimations
for some major statstics.
This will help you to understand the essential.
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An important practical example: Stock exchange indexes
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The German stock exchange index DAXX is an accumulation index
of stock ratings plus accumulated earned profits.
There are valid economic reasons for doing so.
But it means that the index appears always nicer than ''reality''.
Among others, the individual taxation effects will make that
an index-based investment will result in less.
Other stock exchange indexes are just measuring share prices.
So they will end up for an identical share price increase with less
than the DAXX.
In general, shares with bad performance are eliminated from a share index.
The index evolution depends from the speed of doing so.
In the best - or worst - case the share index would be very flexible
by including only shares with good performance, suspending all others
temporarily...
A fund mirroring the index will generate fees when following
these changes. So the results of the index fund will always be below the
index evolution. ,,You can not beat the index.'' - Perhaps you can -
but not with an index-oriented fund.
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Who will need this information service?
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Who will be interested in the more detailed information on this?
- Lawyers in order to claim more money for their customers based on the resulting aspects.
- Journalists in order to astonish their readers with unexpected truth.
Journalists can stop serving brain manipulators
by publishing their ''wrong'' statistics without a critical comment.
- Politicians in order to declare their opponants as uncapable to
understand reality. This can be decisive to win elections.
- Business managers in order to anticipate the future better than
their competitors and to earn this way money were others are obliged to close.
- Scientists in this field in order to compare their knowledge and their opinions
with this analysis. [Please contibute opinions!]
- Everybody else, if he wants to be more than a passive subject
for political marketing and campaings of brain manipulation.
For agreements an detailed studies
(minimum: 400 US$ / Euro) on such subjects
please send a contact message with your office phone number (not mobile phones) to:
ok @ aha7.com
(This service is only available if the expert author for this subject
has time left for such an analysis on demand.)
'The final comment' : First you have learnt not to trust in politicians.
Now you have learnt not to trust in statistics distributed by the media.
Nobody left to trust? -
This is what wise people were telling you since your day of birth.
The only truth is that there can be no truth in this world.
This world is by its deeper logics condamned to be unable to
compare values with absolute truth.
But honest behaviour as well as equality justice require
the prior logics of perfect comparison.
Consequently, this world is condamned to be not honest - to be a world full of sin -
and to be full of injustice.
You have heard this perhaps once from religious people.
You have taken it for nonsense. Now you have learnt that they are right.
Based on the abstract science of statistics and the abstract scientific theory
of the human value hierarchy system, this world can not be a world of truth
nor a world of justice.
This basic problem could only be resolved by a situation of
practically equal wealth status and identical education for everybody
- hence by true [true!] communism. But mankind will never be communist.
In the theory of socialism there is a small forgotten problem - genetics.
Man is programmed to be different - there is no way out of it.
People have differing value systems among others due to genetic differences.
Even ''worse'' for socialist theories,
there is increasing short-term genetic differentiation
due to migrations and increasing long-term genetic differentiation
following the algorithms of genetic mutation probabilities. -
Marx did not know this. The science of genetics came 120 years too late for him.
Even worse, man is programmed for the desire to dominate man -
hence programmed for unequal wealth status.
Moralists will say, this world is condamned to be the world of ,,the evil'',
of ,,the devil''. There is no way out of it.
Others will perhaps say, it is a wonderful world
where so much happens in spite of being forbidden.
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