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   v. May 4, 2015
How to know which economic and other statistics are how wrong? (Basic info is free.)

Only specialists need to order this information offer.

This description supplies enough basic information
... in order to understand the problem. So interested citizen do not need to order some more detailed analysis.

For professional needs it is recommended to order..
... some more detailed analysis. It is useful for bank management, political organizations, research bodies.

Experts in statistics may order more information if...
... if they want to confirm own opinions. Every good specialist in statistics will already know most or all aspects detailed here below (and much more related to this subject).

For agreements an detailed studies (minimum: 400 US$ / Euro) on such subjects please send a contact message with your office phone number (not mobile phones) to: ok @

(This service is only available if the expert author for this subject has time left for such an analysis on demand.)

Which statistics in economics are typically in one way or other wrong?

Practically all are wrong. - Examples:

The growth rate of economy. [Wrong by its nature. Frequently falsification.]

The inflation rate. [Wrong by its nature. Sometimes falsification.]

Stock exchange indexes. [Wrong by their nature. Manipulated, too. In addition, the German DAX is not a share value index but an index of accumulated capital, hence far nicer then the reality]

The unemployment rate. [Totally wrong by its nature. In addition frequently totally falsified.]

The currency exchange rate. [Totally wrong by its nature simply worthless, excepted for commerce and speculation.]

International wealth comparisons based on currency exchange rates, this is the dominant unscientific habit. ... Such comparisons are the champions of logically wrong or even falisified statistics. Error rates are up to 500 %. Poor countries are up to 5 times richer than told by usual press-published income comparisons.

Yes, it is wonderful to feel to be member of a wealthy country when reading from poverty levels somewhere else. But the problem is, in most cases poor countries are several times wealthier than listed in comparisons.

Never trust again your journalists... In this field practically all press information is wrong, totally wrong, because mostly based on documents received from people who intentionally or unintentionally falsified the truth.

Error reason no. 1: Human intention.

The falsification rate for national statistics increases in a more or less proportinal manner with the reducing delay until next critical elections.

''Socialist'' economies [or semi-socialist redistribution economies, like France and Germany] have a far higher degree of manipulation. Past communist Russia and East Germany ['DDR'] were the historical champions with falsification rates of up to 100 % or even several 100 %, depending from the statistics concerned.

China was in the past in falsification competition with them. Now China is still more versatile in the 'false statistics' competition than France or Italy.

Error reason no. 2: Long term trends.

Example: Increasing woman labor and decreasing birth rates mean that growth statistics for the time since 1960 have a falsification factor of up to 100 %.

Example: Increasing 'out-sourcing of househould activities' falsifies statistics. [The restaurant, travelling, etc..]

Example: An increasing state sector in society means that growth statistics can be wrong up to 50 %.

Error reason no. 3: Basic logical problems - logical impossibilities of true statistics.

Example: Statistics rely in their basic concept on the human value system. This varies based on available products, society concepts. There is no way out of it.

The impossibility of 'true' statistics is as absolute as the fact that circles cannot be rectangular.

Example: The truth of statistics in economics is so relative because it is impossible to deal properly with wealth distribution. Such an evaluation would rely on the prevailing society value system for the quantification of economic justice / injustice. But this quantification is impossible in an absolute logical sense.

Example: Increasing globalisation means that growth statistics can vary up to perhaps 30 % or more in a manner impossible to quantify.

Example: The currency value is not identical for distant areas. For example, the new Euro has less [less!] value in Germany than in France. It has in France less [less!] value than in Spain. If such errors are on a non-neglectable level, all related statistics may be falsified. This subsequent falsification effect may be lower or higher than the initial falsification, depending from the subject.

All errors together: What does it mean when reading statistics?

The first conclusion is that nothing is true. The most-cited measure for anything in economy, business, politics and media discussion simply does not exist.

The problem is: The only ones who are conscious that statistics are wrong, are those who are producing them. Specialists in the fields of statistics are regularly the only ones who know more or less precisely the lack of precision and of meaning, and how to guess the relative truth behind statistics.

The conclusion is: Official statistics can serve as guidelines, if interpreted like by scientists in the field of statistics. This is the reason why you should obtain below acces to additional information.

The additional information supplies some very approximated error estimations for some major statstics. This will help you to understand the essential.

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An important practical example: Stock exchange indexes

The German stock exchange index DAXX is an accumulation index of stock ratings plus accumulated earned profits. There are valid economic reasons for doing so. But it means that the index appears always nicer than ''reality''. Among others, the individual taxation effects will make that an index-based investment will result in less.

Other stock exchange indexes are just measuring share prices. So they will end up for an identical share price increase with less than the DAXX.

In general, shares with bad performance are eliminated from a share index. The index evolution depends from the speed of doing so. In the best - or worst - case the share index would be very flexible by including only shares with good performance, suspending all others temporarily...

A fund mirroring the index will generate fees when following these changes. So the results of the index fund will always be below the index evolution. ,,You can not beat the index.'' - Perhaps you can - but not with an index-oriented fund.

Who will need this information service?

Who will be interested in the more detailed information on this?

Lawyers in order to claim more money for their customers based on the resulting aspects.

Journalists in order to astonish their readers with unexpected truth. Journalists can stop serving brain manipulators by publishing their ''wrong'' statistics without a critical comment.

Politicians in order to declare their opponants as uncapable to understand reality. This can be decisive to win elections.

Business managers in order to anticipate the future better than their competitors and to earn this way money were others are obliged to close.

Scientists in this field in order to compare their knowledge and their opinions with this analysis. [Please contibute opinions!]

Everybody else, if he wants to be more than a passive subject for political marketing and campaings of brain manipulation.

For agreements an detailed studies (minimum: 400 US$ / Euro) on such subjects please send a contact message with your office phone number (not mobile phones) to: ok @

(This service is only available if the expert author for this subject has time left for such an analysis on demand.)

  'The final comment' :  
First you have learnt not to trust in politicians. Now you have learnt not to trust in statistics distributed by the media.

Nobody left to trust? - This is what wise people were telling you since your day of birth. The only truth is that there can be no truth in this world.

This world is by its deeper logics condamned to be unable to compare values with absolute truth. But honest behaviour as well as equality justice require the prior logics of perfect comparison. Consequently, this world is condamned to be not honest - to be a world full of sin - and to be full of injustice.

You have heard this perhaps once from religious people. You have taken it for nonsense. Now you have learnt that they are right. Based on the abstract science of statistics and the abstract scientific theory of the human value hierarchy system, this world can not be a world of truth nor a world of justice.

This basic problem could only be resolved by a situation of practically equal wealth status and identical education for everybody - hence by true [true!] communism. But mankind will never be communist.

In the theory of socialism there is a small forgotten problem - genetics. Man is programmed to be different - there is no way out of it. People have differing value systems among others due to genetic differences.

Even ''worse'' for socialist theories, there is increasing short-term genetic differentiation due to migrations and increasing long-term genetic differentiation following the algorithms of genetic mutation probabilities. - Marx did not know this. The science of genetics came 120 years too late for him.

Even worse, man is programmed for the desire to dominate man - hence programmed for unequal wealth status.

Moralists will say, this world is condamned to be the world of ,,the evil'', of ,,the devil''. There is no way out of it.
Others will perhaps say, it is a wonderful world where so much happens in spite of being forbidden.

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Most important political decisions are based on wrong statistics. Some statistics are misinterpreted, some are a bit manipulated, others are intentionally falsified.
Typically concerned: Subjects where the greed for the access to teh tax payer's money or to private money is involved. - Examples: Climate catastrophe hysteria; swine flu hysteria; examination system for new health drugs.
Typical examples were the greed for political power is involved: False statistics about unemployment, economic growth, public deficit.
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